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Monthly Macro

Can wilting Emerging Markets recover after August?

Global markets continued their volatile ride in August, ending lower on concerns over escalations in US-China trade tensions and various country-specific crises.

So far in September, markets seem to be putting on a brave front, despite the threat from a looming trade war. While the US dollar may have momentum to stage a final leap into the year end, our view remains that slower growth, a less aggressive US Federal Reserve, and growing “twin deficit” pressures should see the trade-weighted currency reverse course in the first half of 2019. The depreciation should bring relief to emerging markets.

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