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Monthly Macro

The fog of uncertainty has thickened

Generating economic forecasts is never straightforward, and in 2019 the task has become even more challenging. Our Asset Allocation Team believes that three evolving themes will dominate the global economy in the second half of the year: trade tensions, Fed monetary policy, and the impact of China's stimulus. All three issues are shrouded in a fog of uncertainty.

An era of protracted trade tensions now seems likely, shaving growth in China, the US and Europe, and hitting US consumers hard. Meanwhile, investors who are now fixated on the Fed’s next interest-rate cut might be missing two bigger pictures.

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